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Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation

LPSM

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Université Paris Diderot, CNRS

Présentation

Le Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation, dans sa forme actuelle, a résulté, au 1er janvier 1999, de la fusion de l'ancien Laboratoire de probabilité de l'université Paris 6 avec l'équipe de Probabilités et statistique de l'université Paris Diderot.

Le laboratoire compte environ 70 enseignants-chercheurs permanents, 50 thésards, une équipe administrative de 6 personnes. Il accueille de plus les activités de deux masters deuxième année, ce qui représente plus de 200 étudiants chaque année.

La thématique du laboratoire s'inscrit dans le domaine des mathématiques appliquées et a pour objet la modélisation, la description et l'estimation des phénomènes aléatoires. Les thèmes de recherche abordés ici concernent des domaines très variés et recouvrent aussi bien des mathématiques fondamentales que des applications dans des domaines aussi divers que la médecine, les sciences humaines, l'astrophysique, les assurances ou la finance...

Thèmes de recherche

1. Théorie ergodique et systèmes dynamiques

2. Modélisation stochastique

3. Mouvement brownien et calcul stochastique

4. Statistiques

Equipes de recherche

Le laboratoire comprend six équipes :

Théorie ergodique et systèmes dynamiques,
Modélisation stochastique,
Mouvement brownien et calcul stochastique,
Statistique,
Probabilités numériques et mathématiques financières,
Probabilités-statistiques-biologie.

[hal-00780175] Reflected BSDEs and robust optimal stopping for dynamic risk measures with jumps

Date: 28 Jan 2013 - 16:09

Desc: We study the optimal stopping problem for dynamic risk measures represented by Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with jumps and its relation with reflected BSDEs (RBSDEs). We first provide general existence, uniqueness and comparison theorems for RBSDEs with jumps in the case of a RCLL adapted obstacle. We then show that the value function of the optimal stopping problem is characterized as the solution of an RBSDE. The existence of an optimal stopping time is obtained when the obstacle is left-upper semi-continuous along stopping times. Finally, robust optimal stopping problems related to the case with model ambiguity are investigated.

[hal-00921151] Capital distribution and portfolio performance in the mean-field Atlas model

Date: 2 Nov 2014 - 22:30

Desc: We study a mean-field version of rank-based models of equity markets such as the Atlas model introduced by Fernholz in the framework of Stochastic Portfolio Theory. We obtain an asymptotic description of the market when the number of companies grows to infinity. Then, we discuss the long-term capital distribution. We recover the Pareto-like shape of capital distribution curves usually derived from empirical studies, and provide a new description of the phase transition phenomenon observed by Chatterjee and Pal. Finally, we address the performance of simple portfolio rules and highlight the influence of the volatility structure on the growth of portfolios.

[hal-00747229] A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problems in high dimension

Date: 30 Oct 2012 - 16:53

Desc: In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors.

[hal-00477380] Stochastic Utilities With a Given Optimal Portfolio : Approach by Stochastic Flows

Date: 5 Apr 2013 - 18:36

Desc: The paper generalizes the construction by stochastic flows of consistent utility processes introduced by M. Mrad and N. El Karoui in (2010). The utilities random fields are defined from a general class of processes denoted by $\GX$. Making minimal assumptions and convex constraints on test-processes, we construct by composing two stochastic flows of homeomorphisms, all the consistent stochastic utilities whose the optimal-benchmark process is given, strictly increasing in its initial condition. Proofs are essentially based on stochastic change of variables techniques.